See your real chance of selection this year, your estimated years-to-entry, and the honest math behind the wait.
1 ticket in the Never-Finished men's pool
That's 1 in 333 — about as likely as being born on Christmas Day.
Overall acceptance has collapsed — and a first-timer's odds (red) sit far below even that.
Source: hardrock100.com Entry History. Never pool: 2^N tickets for N prior DNSs. Finished pool: linear. Not affiliated with the race organizations.
// in the meantime
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Tickets
Odds
Tickets double for each prior unsuccessful year. Odds are Hardrock's published 2026 Monte Carlo odds for the men's never-finished pool.
Hardrock's published 2026 lottery oddsThe published weighting curve — every extra ticket moves you along it. Your current tier is highlighted.
