See your real chance of selection this year, your estimated years-to-entry, and the honest math behind the wait.
1 year = 1 ticket in the hat
That's 1 in 333 — about as likely as being born on Christmas Day.
First-timer odds keep falling as applications climb. Stacking tickets fights back — slowly.
Source: wser.org lottery statistics. Tickets = 2^(years−1), doubling for every prior unsuccessful application — no cap; 512 (10 applications) is just the top tier in the 2026 field and grows over time. Not affiliated with the race organizations.
// in the meantime
Working toward running Western States? Start planning your path by finding a qualifier to sign up for.
Tickets
Odds
Tickets double for each prior year you applied without getting in (since 2020 they needn't be consecutive). Odds are read from Western States' published 2026 lottery statistics (official Monte Carlo simulation).
wser.org 2026 lottery statisticsThe published weighting curve — every extra ticket moves you along it. Your current tier is highlighted.
