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Built on bad decisions in Boulder, CO.

UTMB Lottery Odds Calculator

See your real chance of selection this year, your estimated years-to-entry, and the honest math behind the wait.

Race page
Running Stones held1 stone
120

Selected runners averaged ~8.9 stones

~3.1%estimated chance this year

That's 1 in 32 — about as likely as rolling snake eyes.

2,800
field size (start line)

How hard is it to get in?

UTMB publishes no per-entry odds, so here's the demand instead.

~5×
demand vs. capacity — roughly 1 in 5 across the Finals
Avg Running Stones
6.4 applicants8.9 selected
Finals applications (UTMB + CCC + OCC) — climbing

With 1 Stone, you'd sit below the applicant average — a rough estimate, since UTMB doesn't publish per-entry odds.

Source: utmb.world + electriccablecar.com. Demand exceeds capacity by roughly 5× (about 1 in 5), weighted by Running Stones. Not affiliated with the race organizations.

Your path to UTMB

Increase your odds by earning stones

Run UTMB races to earn stones. The harder the race, the more stones you earn.

Istria 21K
Labin, HR · Apr 2026
Half Marathon
Paraty Brazil PTR 17
Paraty, RJ, BR · Sep 2026
25K
Desert RATS Trail Running Festival 50K
Fruita, CO, US · Apr 2026
50K
Val d'Aran - SKY Baqueira Beret
Vielha, Catalonia, ES · Jul 2026
25K
Inthanon 50
Chiang Mai, TH · Nov 2026
50K
Desert RATS Trail Running Festival 100K
Fruita, CO, US · Apr 2026
100K
Explore the UTMB World SeriesOr plan your whole season →

How the UTMB lottery works

A weighted draw on Running Stones, which you earn by finishing UTMB World Series races. The more Stones you hold, the more entries you get in the draw.

You earn Stones by finishing UTMB World Series races — the longer and tougher the race, the more it awards. Because the draw is weighted, more Stones mean more entries in the hat, but a place is never guaranteed: demand across the Finals runs roughly 5× the available spots.

Odds

Formula
(100% ÷ oversubscription) × (Stones ÷ avg Stones)
Calculation
(100% ÷ 5×) × (1 ÷ 6.4)
Estimated odds
≈ 3.1%

Coarse estimate only — UTMB publishes no per-entry odds. Demand runs about 5× capacity (~1 in 5); we weigh your 1 Stone against the average applicant's 6.4.

UTMB World Series — how it works

More lottery calculators

Western States 100
Weighted lottery — your tickets double for every year you apply without getting in.
369
field size
11,328
recent applicants
Hardrock 100
Four pools, split by gender and finisher status. Never-Finished tickets double for every prior unsuccessful year.
146
field size
2,745
recent applicants
High Lonesome 100
Two gender pools. Tickets double for every prior unsuccessful year, with a bonus for trail-work and volunteering.
250
field size
1,216
recent applicants