See your real chance of selection this year, your estimated years-to-entry, and the honest math behind the wait.
2.00 tickets in the men's pool
That's 1 in 16 — about as likely as flipping four heads in a row.
Applications have more than quadrupled since 2021. Stacking tickets fights the squeeze — slowly.
Source: lottery.highlonesome100.com. Tickets = 2^(apps + weighted-finishes + 1) + 2·ln(trail + volunteer + 1). Not affiliated with the race organizations.
// in the meantime
Working toward running High Lonesome? Start planning your path by finding a qualifier to sign up for.
Tickets
Odds
Tickets double for each prior unsuccessful application and weighted finish, plus a log bonus for trail-work and volunteer points. Odds are reproduced from High Lonesome's published 2026 per-entrant ticket distribution via Monte Carlo (validated against the official lottery portal).
High Lonesome's published 2026 lottery odds (reproduced via Monte Carlo)The published weighting curve — every extra ticket moves you along it. Your current tier is highlighted.
